From Harold Breaux of Aberdeen:
On January 20, 2017 the Dagger posted my note titled “Mathematics Shows that Fake News Elected Trump as President”. This note included an abstract of a paper with pointers to the full paper posted on my web site. In the intervening year this topic has gained considerable national attention with a focus on alleged Russian involvement in the creation of chaos in the election through Russian operatives accelerating negative portrayal of Hillary Clinton to include Fake News with the intent of electing Trump as President. This includes a paper titled “Assessing Russian activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections” by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence” released in January 2017. Despite this official government paper, and its conclusions by U.S. Intelligence Agencies , President Trump, throughout this past year, continually made reference to Russian involvement as a “hoax” perpetrated by Democrats because they lost the election”. Even today one finds headlines such as “ 49% of Republicans Still Don’t Believe Russians Tried to Influence the Election.” The proverbial other shoe fell on Friday, February 16 as U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein announced the indictment of 13 Russian operatives for their involvement in a massive operation using social media, Fake News and related efforts “for the purpose of interfering with the U.S. political and election processes” – in effect to elect Trump as President.
Three weeks ago, on January 25, 2018 I posted a follow-up paper on my website (Title, Introduction and Conclusion listed below).
In my first paper and this paper I note “Any effort to apply mathematics to social and political phenomena is fraught with difficulty. Unlike Physics and Mathematics there are no (or few) accepted theories or fields to which agreed upon formulas can be attached.”
In this second paper I note: “ As a result analysts may draw different conclusions primarily because exposure and persuasion rates (to Fake News) are subject to uncertainty. However, information that has come to light in the interim suggests the need to reexamine the issue in depth. Revelations since that time have found that some states “were targeted” by Fake News and that the reach and the exposure rate due to Russian “meddling” was far greater than known at the time and the Fake News stories were more slanted for Trump than was represented in the January paper.”
The question of whether Fake News was pivotal in the 2016 presidential Election has been the subject of several academic papers including a January 2017 “working paper” by Allcott and Gentzkow titled “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election”. The key finding in their paper was the observation that for Fake News to have been pivotal in the election “would require that one Fake News story would have to have been as effective as 36 ordinary TV campaign commercials.” In referencing this observation numerous articles in the press have echoed the implicit conclusion that Fake News was not pivotal in the election.
In my current paper I point out that Allcott and Gentzkow refer to the literature reporting a 50 fold range variation in the effectiveness of campaign commercials and that their above referenced conclusion was based on the lowest estimated value of .02% persuasion rate for campaign commercials. In questioning this comparison I note that Fake News such as a.) “Clinton aides say Foundation Paid for Chelsea’s wedding”, and b.) “the Pope endorsed Donald Trump” surely were more persuasive than a campaign commercial. In critiquing their paper and correspondence with Allcott and Gentzow, Gentzkow responded by e-mail stating “you can take our conclusion with a grain of salt.” In the spring of 2017, Allcott and Gentzkow formally published a re-write of their earlier “working paper” with the same title, made no mention of the above comparison with campaign commercials, and in the first sentence of their Conclusion stated:
“In the aftermath of the 2016 US presidential election, it was alleged that fake news might have been pivotal in the election of President Trump. We do not provide an assessment of this claim one way or another.”
Last week noted attorney Lanny Davis published a book reported throughout national media titled “The Unmaking of the President 2016”. The first paragraph of the book’s Introduction reads as follows: “The Illegitimate President: Hilary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election and Donald Trump won it for the single, decisive reason that FBI director James Comey wrote the infamous letter to Congress on October 28, 2016…”
Russian driven Fake News and the Comey letter are two of the three whammies in the title of my paper. The Introduction and Conclusion of my current paper are listed below along with the URL for my Web site which contains the full 33 page paper.
Mathematics of a Triple Whammy: How the Combination of the Comey Letter, Voter Suppression and Fake News Tilted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College to Trump
Harold J. Breaux Working Paper Jan. 25, 2018
Posted on: www.complexpolitics.wordpress.com
Introduction
The publication of the book “Fire and Fury” by Michael Wolff heightened the national angst over the first year of the presidency of Donald Trump. This associated fury includes the natural question of “how did this Presidency occur?” Independent of this recent focus the die was already cast for Historians and Political Scientists to be addressing the question. This paper addresses and answers the question. The answer lies through a quirk provided by a Triple Whammy: a.)The FBI James Comey October 28, 2016 letter to Congress, b.)Republican Driven Voter Suppression and c.) Russian Driven Fake News. Donald Trump became President despite losing the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.9 million votes. The three swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (hereafter referred to as MWP) provided the winning margin in the anachronistic Electoral College. Numerous articles appear in the press describing specific, single or individual components of the triple whammy and the likely effect on Trump’s margin in MWP and how these three states may have tilted the Electoral College. In an article titled “How to Hijack an Election”, deBuys addresses all three factors in a generalized description but his lack of any numerical accounting allows the issue to fester without any definitive conclusion (aggravated by Trump’s tweets about the brilliance of his victory). This paper goes beyond deBuy’s analysis by examining, gleaning and coalescing actual facts and data from various research studies on each of the three components and then showing, with detailed mathematical accounting , how the aggregate vote impact of the three, individually and collectively, in each MWP state, more than exceeded Trump’s MWP margins- and thus led to his gaining the Presidency.
Trump’s view of the Electoral College is memorialized by Abadi .
“However, back in 2012 Trump was denouncing the very system that would eventually hand him the presidency. It was election night, and for a brief time, it seemed that Republican nominee Mitt Romney might win the popular vote over Barack Obama, while still losing the electoral vote.”
Abadi lists the Trump Tweet storm that ensued in this interim:
*The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy
* This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!
*He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country. This tweet was later deleted.
* More votes equals a loss… revolution!
*The phoney electoral college made a laughing stock out of our nation. The loser one (sic)!
Romney’s early lead in the popular vote did not hold up and Obama eventually won with 51.1% of the vote.
Conclusion: The Triple Whammy led to Trump Winning the Electoral College Votes of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Presidency in 2016
This paper, using data from public sources and Congressional Hearings, detailed analysis and mathematics, using very conservative estimates, leads to the following:
I. The Comey Letter effect was more than enough to exceed the Trump margin in each of the three MWP states. Only 8% (one twelfth) of the Comey 2.8% effect was needed to tilt Michigan and 27% (roughly one fourth) of the 2.8% was needed to switch Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
II. The analysis shows that in Michigan, Trump’s margin was so small that the projected effect of any of the three whammies alone, the Comey Letter, Operation Crosscheck or Fake News created the margin.
III. Trump’s margin in Wisconsin was so small that analysis shows that omitting the Comey effect, Voter Suppression through ID Checks alone was sufficient to tilt Wisconsin.
IV. Fake News alone, when using the exposure rate based on the Intelligence and Congressional Findings and using realistic Persuasion Rates was enough to tilt all three MWP states and the election to Trump.
It was shown that three factors, the Comey Letter, Voter Suppression (Voter ID and Operation Crosscheck) and Fake News taken alone (individually) or in combination more than establish the thesis of this paper.
Carlos Slim, Mex Billionaire…bought NYT 2016…sold in late 2017, Denigrated Trump. Where is his indictment for Interfering? So much for your nonsense. Trump is president and hes going to serve 7 more years.
Hang in there Harold,,,, better luck in 2020. Hillary tried to “Buy” her way with cash and endorsements for Hollywood,,,Trump fans are just that, TRUMP FANS, We didnt need “FAKE NEWS” to help us decide.. Democratic party had nothing but the “Same Ol , Same Ol”. Weather for the good or worse, Trump is shaking things up. BTW, save all that fancy work just put out, you can use it again in 2020
I hope Harold doesn’t own any guns. If If If If If!
Democrats made a mockery of our election. They thought they owned it. They lost. They now are trying to derail Horiwitzes IG investigation into corruption with the special prosecutors sham . Its mental illness.
Harold Breaux ….is your website called ” SNOWFLAKES – R – US ” ?
In 1982 a scientist helped move the crystal ball from SLAK to DESI RING in Germany. I worked a part of that job. I got to know this gentleman years later and he is a prince. Not a snowflake trying to push his professional credential into political slush hoping to make an argument where none exists. Have you no pride?
Buddy I think you are off your meds. You might want to check in with your doctor.
Your ideas are intriguing to me and i wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
You can do all the math you want it makes my head hurt All I know is God bless President Trump. He was elected by God to fix this country and MAGA.
I have better insurance and it’s much cheaper. I got a job cutting grass cause he sent an illegal home. The wall is finally being built and those dirty Mexicans are paying for it. I’m getting 4 dollars more a month in my paycheck from a glorious tax break. My electric bill is now almost free because of clean coal. My 401K has doubled and now I have $8000 to retire I’m thinking of buying an island. And the very best thing… Hillary is going to jail man that makes me so happy.
Give it up! Trump is president and will be for the next three years……
Actually I don’t think he’ll be allowed to president in prison.
Breaux, why don’t you STFU,
Ah, the great Hari Seldon is among us… through mathematics, probability and analysis you’ve finally brought “psychohistory” to us – and long before the birth of the Galactic Empire, too. Only, it was science fiction then and its science fiction now. Let’s see, polling was wrong about Trump and Brexit but you’re going to use polling numbers to support your premise. Polls are crap because only idiots and the unemployed participate. You refer to “..noted attorney Lanny Davis…” seriously? That would be the same Lanny Davis who would happily position his head below Hillary’s toilet seat if she asked? Sure, he’s non partisan, let’s hear what he has to say. After all, he’s an attorney so we know he’s telling the truth. Elimination of the Electoral College would ensure perpetual Democratic wins… liberal candidates would visit the 8 highest population density cities, promise the Moon and stars and win every time- what am I saying, they could call them all gullible fools and still win. The nation would be ruled by those inhabiting a minuscule fraction of the actual land mass. That would certainly work out fine for them… and you. By the way, I’m curious… what exactly does “Republican Driven Voter Suppression” look like? Instead of a young African American swinging a club in front of a polling station it’s an old white guy in a suit handing out religious pamphlets? Your hero lost because she was a crap candidate. If YOU did any of the things she’s gotten away with YOU would be in prison.
Who the F is this clown? It must be soulcrusher., LOL
Seriously? You just show your own ignorance every time you “post” crap like this. I sometimes think I’m the only REAL American that gets on this site.
Rosenstein has indicted 13 Russian operatives and there will be NO purpose of these indictments. Will any of those Russians ever see a courtroom? No. Will there be any convictions? No. Did they really do anything wrong, considering that agencies of the USA have done the same in Russia and continue to meddle in other country’s elections? No. We have to conclude that if we continue to try and influence elections in other countries those same countries may try to influence our elections. We must practice what we preach and if we continue to try and meddle with the election process in other democracies, then we are undermining our own values in the process. The hypocrisy and the irony is undebatable…..
Did you read Trumlp’s view of the electoral college?
In the aftermath of the last election, the Democratic party, including Hillary Clinton, echoed the same view and wanted to do away with the Electoral College and its processes, to use the results of the popular vote instead of the current electoral system. So, in hindsight, what’s your point? Both parties have used the same mentality in this and many other issues, flip flopping on issues to satisfy political goals, while ignoring the well being of the people of the United States.
To Several Commenters
Webster’s Definition of ad hominem
1: appealing to feelings or prejudices rather than intellect an ad hominem argument
2: marked by or being an attack on an opponent’s character rather than by an answer to the contentions made- made an ad hominem personal attack on his rival
U mad Breaux?
I find it fascinating that liberals continue to attempt to malign and discredit the Democratic election of President Trump. Why will they not except the democratic process? The contempt and distain for President Trump by the Democrats is appalling. Their mission to derail and destroy him far outweighs the importance to see our country move in a positive direction. Liberals and Democrats care more about destroying the reputation of President Trump then they do about the betterment of this country. MSNBC and CNN are two of the biggest culprits. Just watch and see. They have made no efforts to work towards bettering the situation in this country. Their whole mission and agenda is to malign the President. President Trump could solve world hunger tomorrow and the Democrats would complain that he is contributing to a national obesity problem.
Recently the liberals have reinforced the point that their distain and contempt for President Trump even outweighs the value of human life. In the wake of the recent school shooting atrocities President Trump suggested that teachers who possessed valid concealed carry permits should have the option to wear and carry a (concealed firearm) while teaching in the school. He did not suggest that they should be trained to engage an active shooter. He pointed out that the policy of most schools is to “shelter in place” in the event of an active shooter or other serious threat to the safety of the children. This often times means locking yourselves in a classroom and hoping that help arrives on time. A locked classroom door could easily be breached by a crazy person utilizing a firearm, heavy blunt object, or even a shoulder. Once inside all of those children could be easily slaughtered. What parent in their right mind, would object to any additional means of defense for their helpless children. Answer None! Do the liberals really hate President Trump that much that they are willing to further compromise the safety of our children. The election is over. Like it or not Donald Trump is president. Get over it and start working for the betterment of everyone in our country.
trump is a crook who colluded with a known enemy of the United States. 20 indictments so far with 5 guilty. trumps going to jail I guarantee it.
PS stop watching so much fox news it makes you look stupid..
Paragraph (1) Sentence (2). “Accept” not “except”. Sorry about the voice auto text. Sorry
Of course this guy is from the ‘Deen.
He’s probably angry about the never ending road construction, empty office space and vacant private businesses.
All American City.
Good grief, what a dope.
What a pisser.
Harold aint no Einstein !!!
Breaux cites an author who’s claim to fame is …pandering to salaciousness…as scientific proof, “The publication of the book “Fire and Fury” by Michael Wolff”. OMG…can our artillery his the right continent?