Using the MRIS search available on the Baltimore Sun’s website, The Dagger was able to gather new home sales data which compares the market conditions from the first half of 2007 to the first half of 2008.
At first glance, it appears that Edgewood and Forest Hill have been hit the hardest by the real estate slump. Could Edgewood’s decline be due to the increase in violence (or at least it’s media coverage)? Maybe it’s just because a large townhouse development opened in early 2007? What about Forest Hill? Were the homes overpriced compared to the surrounding areas that did not experience similar price drops?
21001, ABERDEEN
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 135
Average price: $217478
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 89
Average price: $211860
Price change: -3%
Sales change: -34%
21009, ABINGDON
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 345
Average price: $265622
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 249
Average price: $267964
Price change: 1%
Sales change: -28%
21013, BALDWIN
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 19
Average price: $541863
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 12
Average price: $491667
Price change: -9%
Sales change: -37%
21014, BEL AIR
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 259
Average price: $314371
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 193
Average price: $297750
Price change: -5%
Sales change: -25%
21015, BEL AIR
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 198
Average price: $348574
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 151
Average price: $322559
Price change: -7%
Sales change: -24%
21017, BELCAMP
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 66
Average price: $234173
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 56
Average price: $227218
Price change: -3%
Sales change: -15%
21040, EDGEWOOD
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 212
Average price: $186336
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 82
Average price: $173370
Price change: -7%
Sales change: -61%
21047, FALLSTON
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 52
Average price: $474150
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 40
Average price: $466568
Price change: -2%
Sales change: -23%
21050, FOREST HILL
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 134
Average price: $373055
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 80
Average price: $348473
Price change: -7%
Sales change: -40%
21078, HAVRE DE GRACE
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 87
Average price: $312271
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 65
Average price: $306159
Price change: -2%
Sales change: -25%
21084, JARRETTSVILLE
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 25
Average price: $399420
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 18
Average price: $408749
Price change: 2%
Sales change: -28%
21085, JOPPA
January – June 2007
Number of sales: 76
Average price: $282438
January – June 2008
Number of sales: 61
Average price: $260143
Price change: -8%
Sales change: -20%
All ZIP codes with at least 10 sales in the first six months of 2008 as well as the first six months of 2007 are included.
Another thing I just noticed… Bulle Rock sure has made the average home sales price in Havre de Grace skyrocket.
It’s interesting that Abingdon continues to lead Harford County in terms of the number of home sales.
No offense meant to anyone who lives there, but to me Abingdon seems like a community of starter homes. There are thousands of affordably-priced townhouses that are always available (for rent and purchase) and the area has been able to maintain a pretty good reputation even as it serves as the buffer between Bel Air and Edgewood. Even the nicer single-family homes in Abingdon are moderately priced compared to similar houses in Bel Air and beyond.
I also find it interesting that I own homes in both of the only two areas of the county where housing prices have actually increased.
Maybe nobody is selling in Forest Hill because they want to live close to the new Kohls?
Brian…ok come off the stock picks now….!
How affordable are the Abingdon houses now though? When we bought our house there back in 1998, we paid less than $100k. We sold in 2003 for $135k. Now houses in that same cul-de-sac have been listed for as much as $260k. These aren’t even 24ft-wide townhouses! 🙂
Doesnt BullRock have a lot of rentals of single famalies?
Richie,
Most of the rentals I know of are like that out of necessity, since they are sitting on the market for so long. Some of them are renting pretty cheap though, probably cheaper than buying a home in a struggling neighborhood.
But who is renting them…the developer or the speculitive owner….the realestate day trader……???
Hasnt it been a high rental area because of speculation from the beginning?
I think many of the speculators may have come in a few years ago with the super-low ARM interest rates and started renting them, figuring they would be able to unload them for more than the loan amounts by the time the higher interest rates kicked in. I’m sure in many of their minds, BRAC would come save the day. I don’t think the timing is going to work out for them…
I also know that those who bought later int he development cycle got much better deals that those that jumped in early. The prices have been coming down…
Steve…thats what my in house expert is also saying.
Take a look at the Maryland Department of Assessments and Taxation web site.
http://www.dat.state.md.us
On their Real Property Data Search you can check property sales and get a better picture. The other day I drove to York PA and was surprised to see the number of Foreclosure auction signs along the route.
Thanks Steve for giving us the local numbers behind the story. Harford County might actually be shielded for awhile because of BRAC, but when the baby boomers who are becoming empty-nesters decide to sell the family home and downsize, they are going to cause a rolling earthquake.
How much of the strength in the market for single family homes was because this huge group was settling in to raise families and how much will prices fall when they all try to sell their houses so they can get a condo and a lifetime of free golf at “The Villages”?
Harford County along with Cecil and eastern Baltimore County have been shielded due to BRAC expectations. If or when BRAC expectations drop, expect these markets to drop significantly. How much will depend on how the overall market has recovered by 2011. I still think the BRAC numbers are overinflated and the politicians/media are setting everyone up for a big let down when the hype catches up with them.
I don’t think the BRAC estimates are overinflated necessarily. I think part of the problem is that the public expects this big wave to happen overnight. The government still has 3 or 4 years to make their moves, and really that is just to set up some functionality in their new locations. The full effect of BRAC may not be known for at least another 10 years.
Cindy, I’m ready to move the The Villages right now. Free golf for life!!!!!!!!!
Steve, I’ll be there way ahead of you – I’ll save you a spot!
Cindy makes a good point (golf notwithstanding).
How much will prices and inventory be affected by the boomers who are ditching the single family on 2 acres for the elevator condo within walking distance of downtown?
That seems to be where all the development is going, at least in the last ten years while the moratorium has been in effect.
The way development was going and if it turns around, you’ll be hard pressed to find a 2 acre lot.
The brac influx…slo-burn may actualy help the local market come out unscathed….but some individules will get burnt to some extent.